陈智成(“人民论坛”译)
以下是读者推荐 2021年4月24日 Facebook 的贴文(英中版):
What's Selling?
Tan Tee Seng
While we are preoccupied with who will be Singapore's potential PAP 4th Prime Minister, there is a more important question for the citizens. What would he be selling to the nation? and can he deliver? Let's look at what the previous three PMs sold us and whether they delivered.
The first PAP Prime Minister, Lee Kuan Yew (1959 to 1990), a product of a tumultuous time in the era of new nation statehood in Asia, sold us “Merdeka” and wanted us to “pledge ourselves as one united people, regardless of race, language or religion to build a democratic society based on justice and equality so as to achieve happiness, prosperity and progress.”
Yes, we did achieve prosperity and progress even from a low economic base like many other port cities which made up the nodes of the maritime trade routes and the global supply chain. In an era of booming manufacturing and demand, the high tide lifted everyone who knew how to float. As for building “a democratic society based on justice and equality”, he watered it down to a statement of highfalutin, lofty causes in his defence of paying himself and his ministers' astronomical high salaries in Parliament in 1994.
The successive Prime Minister, Goh Chok Tong (1990 to 2004) was the key driver in transforming Singapore from a cheap, low wage labour force into a middle income beachhead of the region. He sold the idea that we had done well; well enough to be gracious (no need to be so high handed against opponents and critics of the government), but we can aspire to have Switzerland's standard of living (not just chocolate, cheese and wine).
Singapore did embark on an “asset enhancement” and “upgrading” euphoria - a cheese in a mousetrap for many individuals. Using myself as a case study, my 4 room HDB flat bought in 1986 for $60,000 was sold for $315,000 in 1996. I “upgraded” to a private apartment, borrowed from my future CPF savings and found myself $500,000 in debt, further worsened by the Asian Financial crisis. At the same time, they tried to “liberalise” that mass media by issuing only one more broadcast license. SPH was given the license to start MediaWorks. MediaCorp was also given the licence to print Today newspaper. So now we have a diverse selection of two state-owned newspapers to choose from in our very ‘liberal' media.
Economically, top line figures were still glittering despite the Asian Financial Crisis and SARS in 2003. The Singapore population grew from 3 million in 1990 to 4.2 million (with about 30% of the workforce being foreign workers). We got Swiss cheese made in Singapore, tasting a bit like salted fish made by fishermen in Pahang.
The third and current PAP Prime Minister came to office selling the continued success of the PAP government. To those who fell through the cracks, despair not, he extolled. For the new buzz words were ‘inclusivity' and ‘embracing diversity' and even ‘trampoline'. Things would pass down in good shape because PAP intends to rule for 10 thousand years!
So, what would the 4G PM be selling?
Even without the uncertainties exacerbated by pandemic, many young graduates find it hard to get their prospective jobs and have had to rely on government training grants to get started. In 10 years' time, about 50% of HDB (500,000 units) will be reaching the 50 years old mark by when rapid decay in value was forecasted. One of the PAP prospective PM candidates confirmed that the value of HDB flat will be zero when it reaches 99 years old. With the HDB as their only asset, many Singaporeans had committed so much of their retirement savings into this fast-decaying asset. So much in fact that in the last count, more than 70% of Singaporeans do not meet the minimum sum requirement in their CPF savings, and hence are drawing less than $350 per month when the decent living expenses is deemed to be $1300.
I look forward to a new PM who has a vision for the above issues, not one who is engaged in the politics of the inner and eastern palace.
行动党总理们在卖啥?
陈智成(“人民论坛”译)
正当人们正在关注着谁将成为人民行动党的第四任自理之际,对全体新加坡公民来说,有一个极其重要的问题,他会向国家与人民推销了哪些承诺?他能够兑现吗?
让我们回顾过去3位总理向人民推销的哪些承诺?以及他们是否已经兑现了哪些承诺?
第一任人民行动党的总理李光耀(1959年—1990年)。新加坡是这个时期亚洲新民主族主义动荡的时代产物。他向人民推销出了‘默迪卡’(‘Merdeka’)。他向人民提出了要求:‘宣誓彼此不分种族、语言或宗教,成为团结一致的人民,建立一个在正义与平等基础上的民主社会,争取实现幸福、繁荣与进步’。
是的。我们和世界其他城市国家一样,已经从一个经济落后的基础上取得了繁荣和进步,成为海上贸易路线和供应枢纽了。在全球制造业和需求蓬勃高峰期,让每个人都懂得了如何生存下来。至于建立‘一个在正义与平等基础上的民主社会’,在1994年,他在议会为自己和部长们为支付天文数字般的高薪辩护,他将其淡化为一份冠冕堂皇、崇高事业的声明。
续任李光耀的第二位总理是吴作栋(1990—2004)。他将新加坡从本区域的廉价、低工资劳动力转变为中等收入的排头兵的关键推动者。人民杰出地实现了他所推销的承诺。他展示的足‘仁慈’,对付反对政府的政治异己分子,不需要使用高压手段。但是,人民渴望的是他提出的‘瑞士生活水平’的愿景,不仅仅是巧克力、乳酪和葡萄酒。
新加坡确实开始了“资产增值”和“升级”的欣快感——但是,对大多数老百姓而言,这就是一块老鼠夹上的一块奶酪。以我个人为例。我在1986年以租赁方式向建屋发展局租赁了一套4房型租赁屋。当时的租赁价格6万元。我在1996年以31万5千元出让了。我提升到了‘私人公寓’。从我的公积金户头借贷了未来储蓄金。在亚洲金融风暴加剧的时候,我发现自己已经负债50万元。与此同时,他们试图通过颁发仅有的一张‘广播许可证’。他是在向全世界展示新加坡大众媒体已经“自由化”了。他们把这张仅有的许可证颁发给了新加坡报业控股集团作为启动‘媒体业’‘专业化’的许可证。新传媒还获得了负责印刷《今日报》的许可证。这样一来,新加坡人民在‘自由化’下能够选择2家国家控制的报章了。
尽管经历了亚洲金融风暴和沙士病毒肆孽,在经济上,2003年营收数据仍然是惊人的。新加坡的人口从1990年代3百万到增加到4百20万(在外劳带动下,人口增长率约为30%)。我们买到了新加坡制造的‘瑞士奶酪’。但它的味道有如马来西亚彭亨州渔民生产的咸鱼。
第三任总理,也就是现任总理上任时,继续推销人民行动党政府的成功之处。他鼓励那些跌入困境的人,不要绝望。因为新的流行词是“包容性”和“拥抱多样性”,甚至“蹦床”。这一切的一切都会很好的传承下去,因为人民行动党将继续统治一万年!
好了。第四任总理将推销啥?
即便是没有发生大流行传染病,许多年轻人都无法找到自己理想中的工作。他们必须依赖政府津贴的培训金作为起步。在10年内,大约50%的政府租赁组屋(50万个单位)将届满50年租赁期。预计这将导致租赁屋的价值下降。
候任的总理已经确认,政府租赁组屋99年租赁期届满时,政府租赁组屋价值将归零。
对于大部分新加坡人来说,政府租赁组屋是他们一生中唯一拥有的资产。新加坡人把他们毕生储蓄都投资到这个即将归零的资产里。事实上,超过70%的新加坡人在公积金的户头里的储蓄是无法达到最低限额的退休存款额的。当足于体面过着退休生活的生活费是1千3百新币的今天,新加坡人从公积金退休金户头里能够领取的退休金是350新币。
我期待新任总理能够对此问题有个解决方案,而不是热衷于从事内宫和外宫的政治。
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